Proceedings of the New York State Economics Association


Predicting US Bank Failures during 2009

James Murtagh

vol. 7, October 2014, p. 141-147


The purpose of this study is to compare the financial characteristics of failed to surviving banks. We use one-tailed t-tests in examining bank financial ratios to determine if there are significant differences between banks that survived The Great Recession versus those that failed during 2009. The results indicate significant differences between surviving and failing banks, implying that it may be possible to detect banks likely to fail before they collapse. This study evaluates the influence of these variables using regression, logit and probit analysts. Preliminary results suggest early warning measures that would allow regulators to intervene sooner to avert bank failures.


suggested citation:

James Murtagh. "Predicting US Bank Failures during 2009." Proceedings of the New York State Economics Association. vol. 7, October 2014, p. 141-147

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